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South Carolina Democratic Primary Results – PolitiSite Election Projection

While Bernie Sanders was closing in on Joe Biden in the South Carolina Primary,  Joe Biden is expected to pull out a win when all the votes are counted on February 29, 2020.

It wasn’t because a great debate performance during the 10th Democratic Debate in Charleston, South Carolina on Tuesday and it wasn’t because of a major South Carolina state newspaper endorsement., it all came down to the single most important endorsement by an individual.  That individual is House Majority Whip Congressman Jim Clyburn.  Frankly, South Carolina Democrat politics is the among the few states that have people of color making up the majority of voters. These voters look to Clyburn for guidance and (more often then not) follow his lead by pulling the lever for the candidate he endorses.

After Biden had poor showings in two of the last three contests, Bernie Sanders came within four percentage points of taking the lead in South Carolina. That all changed with Bidens ground game and catching Clyburns endorsement following a mediocre debate showing in Charleston.

Many of you who follow Politisite know about our election projection methodology, but for those who are new to us, our momentum model and how we arrive at our conclusion on particular primary elections can be found by looking at our projections for Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.  We take the time each election cycle to explain our methodology during the first three political contests.

Who Will Win the South Carolina Primary?

Based upon careful analysis of the polls, and calculating momentum going into Saturday February 29, 2020 South Carolina Democratic Primary we see the following.  Biden has been able to increase his slight four percentage (4%) point lead to plus ten (+10) percentage points ahead of Bernie Sanders.

There are three candidates that have notable momentum changes:  Steyer (who we project will come in third) has slight positive momentum going in to Saturday, we expect him to do slightly better than the Real Clear Politics Average of 13.7%. Our projection shows he should come it at 15.5% instead.  Steyer was running a clear second during most of our tracking period but was overtaken by Sanders following his strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. The next Momentum change is strong downward momentum for Klobuchar. Web see her getting 4% or less. We see Klobuchar coming in sixth (6th) place.  Next, we have noticed that as Sanders has continually risen in the polls and has won contest, Warren has showed inverse proportionate downward momentum.  Basically, Warrne and Sanders have similar messaging and as voters consider who will become the eventual nominee, voters are moving from Warren to Sanders.  We have Warren coming in fifth (5th) behind Bettigieg.

Politisite Polling Projections for the South Carolina Democratic Primary

  1. Joe Biden (+10) – Will win by at Least 10 points
  2. Bernie Sanders
  3. Tom Steyer
  4. Pete Buttigieg
  5. Elizabeth Warren
  6. Amy Klobuchar (will come in 4% or lower)
  7. Tulsi Gabbard
  8. *Micheal Bloomberg

* Note: Micheal Bloomberg isn’t on the ballot in South Carolina. We have rated him last as a result.

South Carolina Democratic Primary Conclusion

Based on our polling projections and the state of the Democratic Presidential Nomination Race, we expect the following candidates to drop-out following the South Carolina Democratic Primary

  1. Amy Klobuchar
  2. Tulsi Gabbard (we expected her to withdraw after Nevada)
  3. Elizabeth Warren
  4. and Possibly Pete Buttigieg

So, there you have it. We await the Nevada Caucus results and solicit your feedback via Twitter @PolitiSite

 

 

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