Politisite Political Projections for the 2020 New Hampshire Primary Democratic Presidential Nomination.
Political polling predictions is where the Pollsters and Pundits make the real money. If you get it right, you’re a hero and on every cable channel in America. If not you are pushed to the side like yesterdays news. This is the nature of political projections.
PolitiSite uses a momentum modality that is often used with investment instruments like stocks. Prices fluctuate depending on the stock being in or out of favor depending on analysts recommendations and the general influx and outflow of money toward a stock. Presidential candidates are quite the same in this regard as political pundits talk up or down a candidate providing name recognition and the electorate finances a candidate and comments about them via social media and the like further advancing enhancing their ‘stock’. Below is a summary of our modality:
The Trend is Your Friend
Trends: One or two data points doesn’t make a trend as the saying goes. The ‘trend is your friend’ and should always be used in analysis of possible outcomes. Had pollsters considered trending in the 2016 election, they probably would have had the numbers correctly. The problem is that they use data that is a days and they give percentages based on those numbers.
Trend lines are not used. Real Clear Politics has trend lines below the polls so one can see how the candidate is moving. You can also use their graphs to gauge where a candidate may be on election day. When one invests in the stock market, trend lines are part of what are often used. We like momentum. It is very difficult to stop a rolling train. When things are in motion, they will continue to stay in motion unless there is proper resistance. This can be immediate resistance which takes more power (a Major News Story) or gradient resistance which causes things to stop, like a rolling ball.
Candidates Momentum:
Our modality looks at momentum and trend lines in polls in addition to favorable or unfavorable pundits mentions, new stories, social media mentions and the candidates recent quarterly financials.
We use major national pollsters who have been accurate in the most recent elections and those who have been reasonably accurate in the last three election cycles. For state polls, we use the most recognized polls for that state, in New Hampshire, we use the Suffolk University (in Boston I know) for example. We take all of the polling available and throw out the high and low outliers and come up with our PolitiSite Polling Average. We then look at the data-points we have outlined and make a projection of where the candidate will be on election day. Of course we also have a special sauce we apply to our projection. Its a little secret that every poll aggregator prognosticator keeps locked up in their office safe, not unlike KFCs 11 secret herbs and spices.
How are the Democratic Candidates Trending?
Based on Iowa Caucus Results our PolitiSite Political Projections proved accurate by vote count for all candidates less one: Joe Biden. We had Biden coming in second but instead he came in fourth. Keep in mind our numbers are votes Not how the delegates were awarded. So, as we stated, we look at candidates like stocks: So going into New Hampshire, Sanders and Buttigieg are up 6 points, Biden lost -11, Warren dropped 4 points, Klobuchar gained 4 and Gabbard and Steyer both lost 1. These point rises and falls are what the polling graphs and momentum look like coming out of Iowa.
So, having explained how we do things a bit (without giving away our ‘special sauce’) let us give you the New Hampshire Primary February 11, 2020 PolitiSite Political Projection
The New Hampshire Primary 2020 The Winners and Losers
- Bernie Sanders Win by at least 5 Percentage Points
- Pete Buttigieg
- Amy Klobuchar
- Elizabeth Warren
- Joe Biden (Biden will come in Fifth with 11.0%)
- Andrew Yang
- Tulsi Gabbard
- Tom Steyer
- * Mike Bloomberg
* Note: Micheal Bloomberg entered the Democratic Presidential race late and stated that he is skipping New Hampshire Primary. We have rated him last as a result.
The saying goes there is only 3 tickets out of Iowa. Joe Biden will claim he finished so close to Warren and is polling well in South Carolina, (although dropping like a Rock!) He won’t drop put after a fifth place finish in the New Hampshire Primary.
So, there you have it. We await the New Hampshire Primary results and solicit your feedback via Twitter @PolitiSite
